Christmas 2021 Sales Projections

The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan are predicting this year’s pre-Christmas spending will broadly match last year’s high and be significantly above 2019 pre-pandemic spending.

The ARA-Roy Morgan 2021 pre-Christmas Retail Sales predictions forecast that overall spending will come in at $58.8 billion, virtually unchanged on last year, but up 11.3% on pre-pandemic conditions. That is great news for retailers who have suffered through some of the longest lockdowns in the world this year.

The Christmas trading period is critical as it’s the time when most discretionary retailers make up to two thirds of their profits for the year.

After the impact of 2021 lockdowns in NSW and Victoria, it is predicted sales will bounce back strongly in December and those states not impacted by lockdowns will enjoy a more gradual ramp-up in sales growth leading into Christmas.

The COVID five year digital acceleration means many more Australians are shopping online, so this Christmas we will see much more of a mix between in-store and online shopping.

 ARA-Roy Morgan 2021 pre-Christmas Retail Sales (by state and territory)

National retail trade for pre-Christmas 2021 is predicted to be in-line with 2020, with growth in Victoria, Tasmania and ACT; NSW and WA largely flat; and some contraction in Queensland, SA and NT off the back of strong pre-Christmas sales in 2020.

Pre-Christmas sales by state and territory ($million)

2020 (actual)

2021 (forecast)

Change

New South Wales

18,370

18,285

-0.5%

Victoria

15,214

15,418

1.3%

Queensland

12,274

12,091

-1.5%

South Australia

3,710

3,604

-2.9%

Western Australia

6,444

6,480

0.6%

Tasmania

1,1211

1,1261

4.2%

Northern Territory

582

565

-2.8%

Australian Capital Territory

1,116

1,128

1.1%

Total

58,921

58,834

-0.1%

 

ARA-Roy Morgan 2021 pre-Christmas Retail Sales (by category)

By category, the predicted year-on-year change is more uneven than the breakdown by state, with double-digit growth predicted for hospitality offsetting falls in household goods and department stores.

Pre-Christmas sales by state and territory ($million)

2020 (actual)

2021 (forecast)

Change

Food

23,988

23,915

-0.3%

Household Goods

10,920

10,145

-7.1%

Clothing, Footwear, Accessories

4,776

4,721

-1.1%

Department Stores

3,356

3,092

-7.9%

Other Retailing

8,741

8,945

2.3%

Hospitality

7,141

8,016

12.3%

Total

58,921

58,834

-0.1%

The Roy Morgan data values the impact of the most recent lockdowns on retail trade at $131 million per day across the economy. Impacted mostly in NSW and Victoria. Hospitality, clothing, footwear and accessories were the most impacted categories.

These impacts will continue to weigh on annual growth in retail trade and that the retail sector is cycling some very high numbers off the back of a bumper Christmas last year.

The outlook is positive in the lead-up to Christmas and there’s a lot to be cheerful about in this years’ predictions.

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